GBP/JPY 4H Technical Dive: Channel Structure, Counter Trendline Breakout, and 400-Pip Projection

Related: How I Missed a $3000 Trade But Still Won

📈 1. Trend Structure: Upward Channel

  • Main Bias: Bullish – Higher highs and higher lows form a clean ascending channel.
  • Channel Confirmation: Price respects both upper and lower trendlines across multiple swing points.
  • Psychology: Dip buying behavior shows continued accumulation; buyers are in control.

🔹 2. Counter Trendline Breakout

  • Market formed a downward-sloping counter trendline during consolidation.
  • Breakout: Bullish breakout followed by a retest – classic continuation pattern.
  • Entry Trigger: Break + retest with bullish rejection candle gave a clean long opportunity.

📍 3. Entry Zone

  • Entry occurred on the retest of the broken counter-trendline and near-term support zone.
  • Stop-loss: Placed just below the retest zone or below the lower channel line.

🟦 4. Take Profit 1 (TP1) – Resistance

  • TP1 aligns with the horizontal resistance zone near 200.5–201.0.
  • This is a key decision point – expect reactions from sellers or short-term profit takers.

🟢 5. Take Profit 2 (TP2) – Channel Top

  • If price breaks above TP1 and retests successfully, TP2 becomes valid at 203.5–204.0.
  • This follows the “Failure to Fail” principle – bullish structure continuation to the top of the channel.

💭 Trader Psychology

  • Compression and tight consolidation signaled a buildup of momentum pre-breakout.
  • Breakout trapped short sellers, adding fuel to the bullish run.
  • Retest zone held – confirms buyer strength and validates the bullish continuation bias.

📏 Measured Move: 400-Pip Projection

  • Breakout to TP2 is roughly 400 pips.
  • With ATR around 90–100 pips/day, the TP2 zone may be hit by Wednesday to Friday next week if momentum persists.

⚠️ Risk Management

  • If price fails to hold the retest zone or breaks below the ascending channel, the setup is invalid.
  • In that case, watch for deeper corrections or possible trend reversals.

Want more breakdowns like this? Follow the journey at Seun Forex.

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